Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:14:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff52…f9e4 sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized +$2 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -20.9% -28.4% 33% 8% -12.8%
≤30d 12 -20.9% -28.4% 33% 8% -12.8%
≤90d 12 -20.9% -28.4% 33% 8% -12.8%
all 12 -20.9% -28.4% 33% 8% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 8% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -35.3% 0% -21.2%
15% -41.5% 0% -28.8%
20% -47.2% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 49¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 45¢ 38¢ $24 $21 −$4 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $50 −$12 -23%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $129 +$3 +2%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $100 −$1 -1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $110 $0 -0%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 +$2 +17%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 −$1 -3%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $10 −$4 -44%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $35 8m
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 16m
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 16m
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 45¢ $25 28m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 61¢ $39 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Over 0¢ $0 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $6 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $2 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 25¢ $1 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 25¢ $25 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 25¢ $19 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 25¢ $5 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 22¢ $5 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 22¢ $5 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $10 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $8 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $9 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $1 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 93¢ $99 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 64¢ $72 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $101 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 97¢ $110 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $110 6h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $12 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $50 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $10 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $50 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 71¢ $20 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.65 · official $93.65 (match) · 38 history records