Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:59:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xff4e…6731 crypto 193 markets active 0h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,246 (+3%) realized +$994 · open +$252
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%166W / 7L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$6,408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$178
7 days+$136
14 days+$136
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$289
other 27% +$454
politics 3% +$1
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -5.8% -14.8% 50% 0% -5.9%
≤30d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 82% 0% -6.7%
≤90d 76 +1.1% -8.6% 97% 3% -7.7%
all 173 +0.6% -9.0% 96% 2% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -8.0%
10% -17.7% 0% -16.8%
15% -25.6% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×9.44 per $1 lost it wins $9.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$6,408
Realized+$994
Unrealized+$252
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses166 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions20
Markets (closed)173 / 193
History coverage299d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Consensys IPO by June 30 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,263 $1,284 +$21 (+2%)
Stripe IPO before 2027? No 82¢ 94¢ $1,108 $1,256 +$148 (+13%)
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,192 $1,197 +$5 (+0%)
Epic Games IPO before 2027? No 78¢ 90¢ $380 $440 +$60 (+16%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $412 $413 +$1 (+0%)
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $386 $385 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $278 $286 +$7 (+3%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $218 $219 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $149 $149 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $118 $119 +$1 (+1%)
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $111 $111 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Rippling IPO before 2027? No 80¢ 86¢ $59 $64 +$5 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 99¢ 98¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $80 June 22-28? No 97¢ 99¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $3,169 +$178 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 24 $244 −$42 -17%
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $83 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 1-7? Jun 07 $604 +$37 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7? Jun 07 $878 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 02 $69 $0 +1%
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd not IPO before June 2026? Jun 01 $95 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 May 25-31? Jun 01 $140 $0 +0%
Will BW Industrial Holdings not IPO before June 2026? Jun 01 $70 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 25-31? May 30 $285 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 May 25-31? May 30 $192 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? May 28 $856 +$21 +2%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? May 27 $295 +$5 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24? May 23 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 May 18-24? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 19? May 19 $27 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 19 $397 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 18? May 18 $250 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 May 11-17? May 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 18? May 17 $119 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 11-17? May 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? May 17 $549 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 17? May 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17? May 17 $298 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 11-17? May 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? May 16 $149 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 11-17? May 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 May 11-17? May 15 $58 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 11-17? May 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 May 4-10? May 11 $298 +$2 +1%
Will BNB reach $1,100 in May? May 11 $88 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 4-10? May 10 $393 +$7 +2%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 May 4-10? May 10 $299 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? May 06 $198 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? May 05 $251 +$6 +3%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 April 27-May 3? May 03 $140 $0 +0%
Waymo IPO before 2027? May 03 $83 +$13 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 27-May 3? May 03 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 April 27-May 3? May 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 27-May 3? May 02 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 27-May 3? May 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.10 April 27-May 3? May 01 $674 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 27-May 3? May 01 $173 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 27-May 3? May 01 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 April 27-May 3? May 01 $398 +$2 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 April 27-May 3? May 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 April 27-May 3? May 01 $339 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 27-May 3? May 01 $307 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 April 27-May 3? May 01 $60 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 4m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $6 19m
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 21m
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? BUY No 99¢ $297 22m
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $300 22m
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? BUY No 99¢ $68 1h
Epic Games IPO before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $88 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $150 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $149 1h
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $200 1h
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Stripe IPO before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $92 6h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $19 8h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 99¢ $92 8h
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 8h
Will Solana reach $80 June 22-28? BUY No 96¢ $19 23h
Will Solana reach $80 June 22-28? BUY No 99¢ $11 25h
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in June? BUY No 99¢ $9 26h
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 26h
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in June? BUY No 99¢ $18 26h
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in June? BUY No 99¢ $9 27h
Stripe IPO before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $2 36h
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in June? BUY No 99¢ $75 37h
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 37h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $73 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,407.85 · official $6,407.95 (match) · 1541 history records