Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:56:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xff4b…d019 other 255 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (213 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$31,543 (+42%) realized +$31,915 · open −$372
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +123% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +72% what you keep after slip
Net edge+72%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate73%102W / 38L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day213.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$17,241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$1,136
politics 20% −$106
crypto 2% −$4
world 0% +$3
sports 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (213 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+101.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +133.0% +110.8% 67% 18% -29.6%
≤30d 140 +122.8% +101.6% 73% 18% -24.1%
≤90d 140 +122.8% +101.6% 73% 18% -24.1%
all 140 +122.8% +101.6% 73% 18% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover213.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +101.6% 18% -24.1%
10% ← realistic here +82.3% 18% -31.4%
15% +64.7% 18% -38.0%
20% +48.5% 16% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +123% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +87% → late +159% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$262 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$17,241
Realized+$31,915
Unrealized−$372
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses102 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions441
Markets (closed)140 / 255
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$298
Trades / day213.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 441 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $680 $945 +$264 (+39%)
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $714 $709 −$4 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 78¢ $583 $706 +$123 (+21%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $677 $682 +$6 (+1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $638 $653 +$14 (+2%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $566 $585 +$19 (+3%)
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 98¢ $532 $557 +$25 (+5%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 48¢ $322 $522 +$200 (+62%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 25¢ $425 $492 +$67 (+16%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $283 $421 +$138 (+49%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $404 $379 −$25 (-6%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $194 $328 +$134 (+69%)
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $311 $315 +$5 (+1%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 23¢ $283 $313 +$30 (+11%)
Will South Korea reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 84¢ $295 $304 +$9 (+3%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 85¢ 87¢ $258 $264 +$6 (+2%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 72¢ $263 $261 −$2 (-1%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $254 $255 +$2 (+1%)
Will Philippe de Villiers be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 90¢ 92¢ $247 $250 +$3 (+1%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 34¢ $174 $247 +$73 (+42%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 79¢ 81¢ $232 $240 +$9 (+4%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 70¢ $221 $229 +$8 (+4%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 65¢ $227 $224 −$3 (-2%)
Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 91¢ 92¢ $219 $220 +$1 (+0%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 70¢ $209 $217 +$9 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $101 +$5 +5%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $631 +$305 +48%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $207 +$5 +2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $230 +$180 +78%
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $0 +$15 +3465%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $220 +$125 +57%
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $376 +$14 +4%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $203 +$642 +317%
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $14 +$31 +220%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $241 +$14 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,164 −$347 -30%
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $8 +$88 +1114%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,402 −$1,209 -86%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Second half draw? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will John Parry win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $313 −$21 -7%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,324 −$1,085 -82%
Will Jimmy Stanger finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $133 −$5 -4%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $20 −$8 -39%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $1 +$49 +9410%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $1,400 −$1,337 -96%
Will Jacob Bridgeman win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jackson Suber win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $32 −$30 -96%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $1 +$29 +2120%
Will Jimmy Stanger win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $1 +$11 +1850%
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $24 +$2 +9%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $937 −$418 -45%
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $30 +$1,467 +4910%
Will Erik Van Rooyen finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope Jun 15 $12 +$1 +10%
Will Matthieu Pavon finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open Jun 15 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Emiliano Grillo finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope Jun 15 $29 +$3 +10%
Will Patrick Fishburn finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Op Jun 15 $17 +$1 +9%
Will Takumi Kanaya finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Vince Whaley finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $24 +$2 +9%
Will Chandler Blanchet finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian O Jun 15 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Lanto Griffin finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Billy Horschel finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open Jun 15 $19 +$2 +9%
Will Luke Clanton win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $0 $0 +41%
Will Luke Clanton finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Adam Svensson finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $77 +$1 +1%
Will Rico Hoey win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $0 $0 +5%
Will Benjamin Silverman win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Trace Crowe win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Taylor Pendrith win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Adam Hadwin finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Kevin Roy finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $19 +$2 +9%
Will Benjamin Silverman finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Jun 14 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Sam Ryder finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $19 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3m
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12m
Will Jacob Bridgeman win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24m
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 46m
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 1h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $50 1h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $23 1h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $1 1h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $5 1h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $50 1h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 2h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 2h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 2h
Will Michael Brennan win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 62¢ $2 3h
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 3h
Will Liudmila Samsonova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $5 4h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $21 4h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 4h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $23 4h
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 5h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 5h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 5h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,241.21 · official $17,226.56 (match) · 3500 history records