Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xff4a…3d65 crypto 836 markets active 9h ago coverage 59d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$315 (+2%) realized +$315 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate74%625W / 222L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day55.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$35
14 days−$33
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$57
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -15.0% -23.1% 67% 0% -12.5%
≤30d 394 -2.7% -11.9% 74% 1% -9.7%
≤90d 847 -1.8% -11.2% 74% 1% -9.4%
all 847 -1.8% -11.2% 74% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 1% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$315
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses625 / 222
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)847 / 836
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day55.6
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 847 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $19 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $19 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $37 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $37 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $17 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $18 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $19 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $19 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $10 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records