Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:03:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff46…2023 crypto 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$88 (-18%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%55W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$55
14 days−$56
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -26.0% -33.0% 38% 37% -28.1%
≤30d 141 -29.0% -35.7% 36% 35% -31.5%
≤90d 154 -28.5% -35.3% 36% 34% -31.6%
all 154 -28.5% -35.3% 36% 34% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 34% -31.6%
10% -41.5% 33% -38.1%
15% -47.1% 31% -44.1%
20% -52.3% 31% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses55 / 99
Open positions0
Markets (closed)154 / 154
History coverage32d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 154 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$6 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 338 history records