Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff45…0913 other 246 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 235L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$17
14 days−$30
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$39
sports 26% −$24
culture 8% −$10
politics 7% −$7
economics 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$5
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 246 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)246 / 246
History coverage135d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 246 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $414 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $132 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $521 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $194 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $693 −$2 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $408 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $208 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $392 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $420 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $406 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $213 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $247 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $644 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 08 $192 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $264 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $277 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $538 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $151 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $252 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $306 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $202 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $361 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $141 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 26m
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 1h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 3h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 7h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 9h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 10h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 12h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $57 13h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $57 14h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 16h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 17h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 22h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 24h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 25h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 27h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 31h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 33h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 34h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 36h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 40h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 42h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 47h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1387 history records