Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff45…695e crypto 433 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$110 (+6%) realized +$110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%192W / 241L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$76
other 5% −$29
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -6.0% -15.0% 39% 39% -12.8%
≤30d 23 -6.0% -15.0% 39% 39% -12.8%
≤90d 433 -8.9% -17.6% 44% 42% -7.3%
all 433 -8.9% -17.6% 44% 42% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 42% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 41% -16.2%
15% -32.7% 39% -24.3%
20% -39.3% 36% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses192 / 241
Open positions0
Markets (closed)433 / 433
History coverage64d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 433 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$5 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$8 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 01 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 01 $3 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 01 $3 −$2 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 01 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 01 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 26 $5 +$4 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 26 $17 −$12 -70%
BNB Up or Down - April 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 25 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 25 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 25 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 25 $15 −$4 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 25 $19 −$4 -24%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 25 $3 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2004 history records