Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff42…1548 crypto 1275 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,374 (+3%) realized +$1,374 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate85%1082W / 193L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day34.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days−$44
14 days−$54
30 days+$323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$506
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -2.6% -11.9% 70% 36% -10.6%
≤30d 651 -1.3% -10.7% 85% 17% -8.6%
≤90d 1275 +1.3% -8.4% 85% 20% -8.7%
all 1275 +1.3% -8.4% 85% 20% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 20% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 14% -17.4%
15% -25.1% 10% -25.4%
20% -32.5% 8% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$21 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,374
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1082 / 193
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1275 / 1275
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day34.8
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1275 Trades
no open positions (167 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $61 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $49 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $65 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $44 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $37 −$36 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $18 +$32 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $18 +$53 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $62 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $46 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $64 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $14 +$14 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $54 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $44 −$44 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $67 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $55 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $47 +$21 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $48 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $24 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $17 +$36 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$41 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $59 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $32 +$18 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $56 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $59 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $46 −$45 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $61 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $49 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $61 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $37 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $56 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $18 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $30 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $17 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $62 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $12 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $46 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records