Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:35:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff40…2e7d crypto 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (151 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$110 (+9%) realized +$115 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%49W / 53L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day150.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (151 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +1.4% -8.2% 48% 48% +0.5%
≤30d 102 +1.4% -8.2% 48% 48% +0.5%
≤90d 102 +1.4% -8.2% 48% 48% +0.5%
all 102 +1.4% -8.2% 48% 48% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover150.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 48% +0.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 47% -9.1%
15% -25.0% 44% -17.9%
20% -32.4% 43% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$115
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses49 / 53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day150.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 61¢ 28¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$6 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$27 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$10 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $42 +$15 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$14 +426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$11 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $58 +$46 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $92 +$42 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$11 +337%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$45 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$6 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$8 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$6 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$7 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$34 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.67 · official $7.13 · 187 history records