Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xff3e…953f weather 310 markets active 3d ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$186 (-6%) realized −$188 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate32%94W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day61.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$389
14 days−$261
30 days−$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$209
other 4% −$11
crypto 2% −$45
politics 0% +$1
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -51.0% -55.6% 16% 16% -71.7%
≤30d 298 -32.8% -39.2% 32% 24% -16.8%
≤90d 298 -32.8% -39.2% 32% 24% -16.8%
all 298 -32.8% -39.2% 32% 24% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.2% 24% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -45.0% 17% -24.8%
15% -50.3% 13% -32.1%
20% -55.2% 9% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$188
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses94 / 204
Open positions12
Markets (closed)298 / 310
History coverage20d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day61.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 86¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+94%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 56¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 82¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 32¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 8¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-63%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 69¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-68%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$6 +238%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 +$7 +637%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 −$18 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$3 -44%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $13 +$6 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -69%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $16 +$29 +184%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$8 +314%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $37 +$10 +26%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 97¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 14¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 14¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 13¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 12¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 13¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 13¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 33¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 50¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.04 · official $68.04 (match) · 1410 history records