Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:17:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xff3d…f92e world 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate36%25W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$7
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$2
other 15% $0
politics 13% $0
sports 11% −$12
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.2% -11.5% 17% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 31 +55.6% +40.8% 29% 10% -9.2%
≤90d 68 +26.2% +14.2% 37% 6% -9.4%
all 69 +24.4% +12.6% 36% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.6% 6% -9.9%
10% +1.8% 4% -18.5%
15% -8.0% 4% -26.4%
20% -17.1% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses25 / 44
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage485d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 78¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 13¢ 32¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+150%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $80 +$1 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $68 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $4 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $36 +$1 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $80 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $3 +$1 +21%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $104 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $75 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $68 +$4 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $74 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $101 −$4 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $36 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $51 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $9 +$1 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $34 +$1 +4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $26 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 18 $37 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $34 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $30 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $77 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $4 $0 +6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $3 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $3 $0 +9%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $82 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $42 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $42 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $34 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $34 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $24 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $42 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $14 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $14 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $18 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $24 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $42 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $17 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $42 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.56 · official $0.00 · 274 history records