Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xff3c…5afe crypto 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+1%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate91%31W / 3L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% +$1
crypto 27% −$2
sports 1% +$12
other 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 16 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 34 +6.2% -3.9% 91% 9% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 9% -8.9%
10% -13.1% 9% -17.6%
15% -21.5% 9% -25.5%
20% -29.2% 9% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses31 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage608d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 08 $36 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 05 $36 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 03 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? Jun 01 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 26? May 28 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? May 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 13? May 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 7? May 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 29? May 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 22? Apr 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 20? Apr 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Apr 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 12? Feb 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 11? Feb 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? Feb 09 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? Feb 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 31? Feb 04 $34 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of December? Jan 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of December 1 above $90? Dec 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $270 in November? Dec 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Dec 04 $10 $0 +1%
Pelicans vs. Hornets Nov 13 $12 +$12 +100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 24 $1,373 +$7 +0%
Will Trump say "Tammy Baldwin" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1? Nov 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 11 $4 +$10 +233%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 11 $721 +$6 +1%
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Nov 01 $6 +$9 +163%
Bitcoin above $69,000 on October 25? Oct 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Chargers vs. Cardinals Oct 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $36 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 99¢ $36 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? BUY Yes 99¢ $35 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $35 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $35 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 35d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 41d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 56d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $30 111d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 127d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 128d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? BUY No 99¢ $13 131d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $35 132d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $35 133d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $34 137d
Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of December? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 177d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of December 1 above $90? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 195d
Will Solana reach $270 in November? BUY No 99¢ $10 216d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $10 216d
Pelicans vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 50¢ $12 508d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 517d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No 4¢ $277 552d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.94 · official $35.94 (match) · 149 history records