Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff3c…8e01 crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate86%18W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +6.4% -3.7% 86% 24% -5.2%
≤30d 21 +6.4% -3.7% 86% 24% -5.2%
≤90d 21 +6.4% -3.7% 86% 24% -5.2%
all 21 +6.4% -3.7% 86% 24% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 24% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 14% -14.3%
15% -21.3% 10% -22.6%
20% -29.1% 10% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$25 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses18 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$49 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$6 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$32 +123%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 42m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 47m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $58 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records