Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:08:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff3a…e11e other 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,278 (+1%) realized +$1,276 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate19%22W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$1,171per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$769now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$17
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$72
other 36% −$256
sports 12% +$1,599
world 2% −$3
economics 2% −$5
crypto 2% +$3
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 56 +1.8% -7.9% 9% 2% -8.8%
all 117 -4.5% -13.6% 19% 9% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 9% -8.7%
10% -21.9% 9% -17.4%
15% -29.4% 8% -25.4%
20% -36.3% 3% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,507) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$9 · ×10.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$769
Realized+$1,276
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses22 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage153d
Avg bet$1,171
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $767 $769 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 27 $348 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 27 $310 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $458 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 26 $1,982 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1,415 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $1,295 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $280 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,481 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $4,513 −$6 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,847 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,269 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 11 $1,148 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $2,261 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,388 −$4 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,395 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $690 +$1 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $3,893 −$5 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,587 −$3 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $3,712 −$4 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? May 19 $725 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,473 −$3 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,449 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 01 $474 +$2 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 01 $490 +$1 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,302 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,502 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $2,987 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $4,451 −$4 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,507 −$2 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2,755 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $2,134 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,305 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,411 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,853 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,527 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $1,431 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2,981 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $1,659 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $348 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $348 3h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $310 3h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $310 6h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $458 6h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $458 9h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $503 24h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $504 26h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $351 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $352 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $476 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $476 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $423 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $424 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $280 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $280 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $767 11d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,479 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,481 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,423 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,424 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,312 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,314 15d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,476 15d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,478 15d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,267 15d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,269 15d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $1,146 16d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $1,148 16d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,174 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $769.22 · official $769.22 (match) · 405 history records