Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff3a…f945 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$4 (-7%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -12.3% -20.6% 52% 12% -19.1%
≤30d 25 -12.3% -20.6% 52% 12% -19.1%
≤90d 25 -12.3% -20.6% 52% 12% -19.1%
all 25 -12.3% -20.6% 52% 12% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 12% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 8% -26.9%
15% -35.1% 8% -33.9%
20% -41.5% 8% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.03 (match) · 57 history records