Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff39…b904 sports 177 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$232 (-3%) realized −$232 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate31%54W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$171est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$84
14 days−$48
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$373
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -35.5% -41.7% 0% 0% -32.5%
≤30d 19 -11.9% -20.3% 16% 11% -20.6%
≤90d 107 -4.1% -13.2% 33% 7% -13.5%
all 177 -3.4% -12.6% 31% 8% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 8% -13.2%
10% -21.0% 5% -21.5%
15% -28.6% 2% -29.1%
20% -35.6% 1% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$232
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses54 / 123
Est. fees paid−$171
Open positions0
Markets (closed)177 / 177
History coverage107d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 177 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 27 $51 −$1 -2%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 27 $76 −$14 -18%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $51 −$5 -10%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics Jun 25 $72 −$12 -16%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $25 $0 -2%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $79 −$27 -34%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $50 +$13 +26%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $26 +$33 +128%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $25 −$2 -10%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $25 −$2 -10%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $8 −$1 -13%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 13 $25 −$3 -14%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $56 −$12 -22%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $18 −$5 -28%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 10 $6 −$1 -12%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $5 $0 -4%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 06 $3 $0 +5%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $56 −$13 -23%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 27 $17 −$1 -6%
76ers vs. Knicks May 27 $104 −$94 -90%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $61 +$2 +3%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Indiana Fever May 23 $14 $0 -3%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $4 −$1 -13%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $8 $0 -1%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $11 $0 -4%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $35 −$1 -3%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $15 −$1 -8%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $6 $0 -1%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $8 −$1 -14%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $11 +$7 +65%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $3 $0 -6%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 29 $764 −$25 -3%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $302 −$3 -1%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $641 −$27 -4%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $478 −$7 -2%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $193 −$9 -4%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $114 −$13 -12%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $832 −$21 -3%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $305 −$1 -0%
Bucks vs. 76ers Apr 13 $17 −$4 -22%
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers Apr 13 $16 $0 -0%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Apr 13 $22 +$8 +35%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 13 $109 +$2 +2%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 12 $32 +$9 +26%
Warriors vs. Kings Apr 11 $11 −$1 -7%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Apr 11 $12 +$1 +4%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $15 −$1 -4%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 11 $54 $0 +1%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 10 $16 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Atlanta Dream 67¢ $28 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Atlanta Dream 59¢ $25 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Atlanta Dream 60¢ $21 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Atlanta Dream 70¢ $25 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 52¢ $19 4h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 67¢ $25 4h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Connecticut Sun 42¢ $22 4h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 47¢ $25 4h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Connecticut Sun 50¢ $21 4h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 58¢ $25 4h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever SELL Phoenix Mercury 57¢ $19 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Phoenix Mercury 74¢ $25 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever SELL Phoenix Mercury 78¢ $26 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Phoenix Mercury 74¢ $25 2d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics SELL Washington Mystics 47¢ $13 2d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 54¢ $15 2d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics SELL Washington Mystics 48¢ $16 2d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 69¢ $24 2d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics SELL Washington Mystics 68¢ $7 2d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 68¢ $7 2d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics SELL Washington Mystics 63¢ $24 2d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 66¢ $25 2d
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 74¢ $25 4d
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 74¢ $25 4d
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks SELL New York Liberty 58¢ $1 5d
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY New York Liberty 71¢ $25 5d
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks SELL New York Liberty 68¢ $25 5d
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY New York Liberty 64¢ $25 5d
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks SELL Los Angeles Sparks 47¢ $2 5d
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 60¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2200 history records