Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FF 0xff39…1d07 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$103 (+2%) realized +$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$482per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$99
14 days+$102
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$3
other 33% −$1
world 9% −$1
sports 7% +$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.9% -14.0% 40% 20% -4.6%
≤30d 11 -2.2% -11.5% 55% 9% -7.6%
≤90d 11 -2.2% -11.5% 55% 9% -7.6%
all 11 -2.2% -11.5% 55% 9% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 9% -7.6%
10% -20.0% 9% -16.4%
15% -27.7% 9% -24.5%
20% -34.8% 9% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$29 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$485
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage13d
Avg bet$482
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $485 $485 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $481 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $452 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $115 −$115 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $285 +$215 +75%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $481 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $560 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $532 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $433 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $451 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $511 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $510 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $485 57m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $480 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $481 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $452 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 23¢ $100 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 23¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 57¢ $105 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 57¢ $46 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 57¢ $134 5d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $480 5d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $481 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $483 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $483 7d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $531 8d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $532 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $433 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $451 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $511 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $510 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $484.76 · official $484.76 (match) · 31 history records