Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:35:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FF 0xff34…5a5a world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate57%16W / 12L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$7
crypto 20% +$13
weather 12% +$1
sports 7% −$1
other 2% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.6% -7.2% 40% 10% -8.5%
≤30d 16 +1.4% -8.3% 38% 6% -9.0%
≤90d 16 +1.4% -8.3% 38% 6% -9.0%
all 28 +2.4% -7.4% 57% 7% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 7% -7.9%
10% -16.2% 7% -16.7%
15% -24.3% 0% -24.7%
20% -31.7% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.53 per $1 lost it wins $4.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses16 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage483d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 89¢ $46 $49 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $65 +$5 +8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $26 −$3 -10%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Mar 19 $38 +$10 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $61 +$1 +2%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 20 Mar 12 $59 +$1 +2%
St. Louis vs. Dayton Mar 04 $61 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 5? Mar 04 $61 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by March 31? Mar 04 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $59 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $46 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $19 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $16 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $4 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $46 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $46 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $38 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $9 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $33 32h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $22 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $48 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $41 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $6 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.95 · official $48.40 (match) · 93 history records