Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff34…bf20 sports 401 markets active 1h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,895 (-14%) realized −$5,895 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%123W / 276L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$154est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$3,029
crypto 28% −$433
other 18% −$1,512
politics 2% −$899
world 2% −$176
economics 0% −$70
tech 0% −$154
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.0% -8.6% 44% 44% -10.9%
≤30d 50 -37.6% -43.5% 28% 28% -20.5%
≤90d 284 -36.9% -42.9% 29% 29% -27.5%
all 399 -27.4% -34.4% 31% 31% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 31% -23.6%
10% -40.6% 30% -30.9%
15% -46.4% 29% -37.6%
20% -51.6% 27% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -18% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$83 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$5,895
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses123 / 276
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$154
Open positions1
Markets (closed)399 / 401
History coverage190d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 18? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 239 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $160 −$156 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $82 +$79 +96%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$69 +88%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $98 +$121 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $114 −$110 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $94 −$91 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $197 +$171 +87%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $161 +$37 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $122 +$34 +28%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira Jun 17 $23 +$106 +469%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 30 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 30 $22 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 30 $10 +$11 +109%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 30 $59 −$49 -82%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 30 $36 +$23 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 30 $20 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 30 $13 +$6 +42%
Seattle Storm vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 170.5 May 30 $65 −$51 -78%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 30 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 30 $41 −$39 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 30 $32 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 30 $56 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 30 $74 +$79 +106%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $20 +$54 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 23 $13 −$12 -95%
Spread: Auckland FC (-1.5) May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 23 $18 −$2 -11%
Will Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw? May 23 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 23 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 23 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 23 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 23 $24 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 23 $19 +$18 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 23 $6 −$6 -94%
Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5 May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
World Championships: Germany vs. Hungary May 22 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 41m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $134 42m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $160 42m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $82 46m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $62 49m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $143 51m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $78 57m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $219 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $98 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $62 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $198 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 80¢ $137 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 80¢ $24 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $156 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $122 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira BUY 17¢ $23 14h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal BUY 4¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.13 · official $12.13 · 964 history records