Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FF 0xff2c…c92b sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$151 (+24%) realized +$137 · open +$19
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%22W / 14L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$51
14 days+$51
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$153
sports 42% $0
tech 3% +$19
other 2% −$11
world 1% −$9
politics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +99.5% +80.5% 100% 100% +80.3%
≤30d 15 +45.7% +31.8% 73% 73% +20.7%
≤90d 24 +16.1% +5.1% 58% 58% +5.3%
all 36 +21.0% +9.5% 61% 61% +11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.5% 61% +11.2%
10% -1.0% 61% +0.6%
15% -10.6% 61% -9.2%
20% -19.3% 61% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$137
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage213d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 50¢ 90¢ $12 $21 +$9 (+79%)
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Toronto Marlies 50¢ 100¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+100%)
MLP St. Petersburg: Orlando Squeeze vs Miami Pickleball Club Orlando Squeeze 50¢ 51¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump post "Ceasefire" on Truth Social this week? No 50¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Chisinau (Doubles): Isaro/Poonacha vs Jecan/Pavel Isaro/Poonacha 50¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 51¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Pakistan Super League: Rawalpindi Pindiz vs Islamabad United - Who wins the toss? Islamabad United 50¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - November 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 51¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Up 49¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
KHL: Sibir Novosibirsk vs. SKA St. Petersburg SKA St. Petersburg 50¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 9 be between 2,200,000 and 2,400,000? Yes 50¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Houston Astros 50¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
ITF Bol: Dora Miskovic vs Tena Lukas Dora Miskovic 50¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
CB Murcia vs. Basquet Girona Basquet Girona 50¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Zuffa Boxing 7: Massey vs. Clarke (Cruiserweight, Main) Massey 50¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Blinkova vs Fernandez Fernandez 50¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Zuffa Boxing 7: Cutler vs. Sutton (Middleweight, Main) Jun 12 $4 +$4 +100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 12 $6 +$6 +100%
Libema Open (Doubles): Griekspoor/Zandschulp vs Cash/Tracy Jun 12 $7 +$7 +100%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 12 $10 +$10 +100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky Jun 12 $12 +$12 +97%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 12 $12 +$12 +100%
Zuffa Boxing 7: Massey vs. Clarke (Cruiserweight, Main) May 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Chisinau (Doubles): Isaro/Poonacha vs Jecan/Pavel May 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Manresa vs. Basket Zaragoza May 22 $5 +$5 +100%
Diamond Dolphins vs. Utsunomiya Brex May 22 $6 +$6 +97%
Hiroshima Dragonflies vs. Toyama Grouses May 22 $8 +$8 +97%
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand - Wh May 22 $8 +$8 +97%
Krka vs. Zadar May 22 $13 +$12 +97%
ITF Bol: Dora Miskovic vs Tena Lukas May 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Blinkova vs Fernandez May 11 $5 −$5 -98%
CB Murcia vs. Basquet Girona May 06 $12 −$12 -98%
Pakistan Super League: Rawalpindi Pindiz vs Islamabad United - Who win Apr 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 9 be between 2,200,0 Apr 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump post "Peace Through Strength" on Truth Social this week? Apr 08 $5 +$5 +100%
Lamar Cardinals vs. Houston Christian Huskies Apr 08 $16 +$16 +102%
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March Apr 08 $19 +$19 +100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump post "Ceasefire" on Truth Social this week? Mar 28 $9 −$9 -100%
KHL: Sibir Novosibirsk vs. SKA St. Petersburg Mar 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jan 17 $26 −$26 -98%
XRP Up or Down - January 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 12 $25 +$23 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 08 $24 +$23 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 06 $19 +$18 +96%
XRP Up or Down - December 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Dec 31 $25 +$24 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Dec 18 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Dec 17 $22 +$21 +96%
XRP Up or Down - December 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Dec 11 $32 +$31 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Nov 29 $45 +$43 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Nov 29 $50 +$50 +100%
Solana Up or Down - November 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Nov 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
MLP St. Petersburg: Orlando Squeeze vs Miami Pickleball Club BUY Orlando Squeeze 50¢ $12 1h
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves BUY Toronto Marlies 50¢ $10 3d
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 50¢ $12 5d
Libema Open (Doubles): Griekspoor/Zandschulp vs Cash/Tracy BUY Griekspoor/Zandschulp 50¢ $7 6d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 50¢ $6 10d
Zuffa Boxing 7: Cutler vs. Sutton (Middleweight, Main) BUY Cutler 50¢ $4 12d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Olympiacos B.C. 50¢ $12 14d
Zuffa Boxing 7: Massey vs. Clarke (Cruiserweight, Main) BUY Massey 50¢ $11 17d
Zuffa Boxing 7: Massey vs. Clarke (Cruiserweight, Main) BUY Massey 50¢ $0 17d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY KT Wiz 50¢ $10 19d
Chisinau (Doubles): Isaro/Poonacha vs Jecan/Pavel BUY Isaro/Poonacha 50¢ $11 21d
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers BUY Houston Astros 50¢ $11 24d
ITF Bol: Dora Miskovic vs Tena Lukas BUY Dora Miskovic 50¢ $11 26d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky BUY Minnesota Lynx 50¢ $12 28d
Manresa vs. Basket Zaragoza BUY Manresa 50¢ $5 31d
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand - Wh BUY New Zealand 50¢ $8 32d
Set 1 Winner: Blinkova vs Fernandez BUY Fernandez 50¢ $5 35d
CB Murcia vs. Basquet Girona BUY Basquet Girona 50¢ $12 39d
Hiroshima Dragonflies vs. Toyama Grouses BUY Toyama Grouses 50¢ $8 47d
Diamond Dolphins vs. Utsunomiya Brex BUY Utsunomiya Brex 50¢ $6 51d
Pakistan Super League: Rawalpindi Pindiz vs Islamabad United - Who win BUY Islamabad United 50¢ $0 52d
Pakistan Super League: Rawalpindi Pindiz vs Islamabad United - Who win BUY Islamabad United 50¢ $10 54d
Krka vs. Zadar BUY Zadar 50¢ $13 61d
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 9 be between 2,200,0 BUY Yes 50¢ $7 68d
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 9 be between 2,200,0 BUY Yes 50¢ $4 68d
Will Trump post "Peace Through Strength" on Truth Social this week? BUY No 50¢ $5 73d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes $0 75d
Will Trump post "Ceasefire" on Truth Social this week? BUY No 50¢ $9 78d
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March BUY Yes 50¢ $7 82d
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March BUY Yes 50¢ $12 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.11 · official $52.11 (match) · 65 history records