Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FF 0xff2a…3319 crypto 874 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 128d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,241 (-7%) realized −$2,248 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%362W / 539L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,019
7 days−$1,019
14 days−$1,019
30 days−$1,019
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$995
sports 4% −$1,095
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -40.5% -46.1% 30% 30% -74.6%
≤30d 53 -40.5% -46.1% 30% 30% -74.6%
≤90d 224 -20.1% -27.8% 38% 37% -43.9%
all 901 -8.9% -17.5% 40% 39% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 39% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 35% -26.3%
15% -32.6% 33% -33.4%
20% -39.2% 31% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$24 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$2,248
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses362 / 539
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)901 / 874
History coverage128d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 901 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 52¢ 90¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 407 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$58 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $195 −$195 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $108 −$53 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$12 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $44 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $14 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.05 · official $15.53 · 3500 history records