trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +16.0% | +4.9% | 50% | 50% | +6.0% |
| ≤30d | 20 | -15.3% | -23.4% | 40% | 40% | -19.4% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -15.3% | -23.4% | 40% | 40% | -19.4% |
| all | 29 | -34.0% | -40.3% | 31% | 31% | -70.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -40.3% | 31% | -70.8% |
| 10% | -46.0% | 31% | -73.6% |
| 15% | -51.2% | 31% | -76.2% |
| 20% | -56.0% | 24% | -78.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 3¢ | $50 | $135 | +$85 (+171%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 6¢ | $50 | $70 | +$20 (+40%) |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 54¢ | 69¢ | $50 | $64 | +$14 (+29%) |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $50 | $45 | −$5 (-11%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $50 | $35 | −$15 (-31%) |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 20¢ | 6¢ | $72 | $21 | −$51 (-71%) |
| Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $5 | −$45 (-90%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 25 | $51 | +$167 | +327% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 25 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? | Jun 25 | $51 | +$47 | +93% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? | Jun 24 | $51 | −$50 | -99% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? | Jun 24 | $51 | −$50 | -97% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? | Jun 24 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $50 | +$23 | +46% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 19 | $51 | +$31 | +62% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $102 | −$51 | -50% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $51 | −$50 | -99% |
| Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $51 | −$50 | -99% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $51 | +$29 | +57% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $51 | −$50 | -99% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $51 | +$47 | +93% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $51 | +$88 | +172% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $50 | +$22 | +44% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | Mar 14 | $1,043 | −$1,043 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Feb 26 | $502 | −$502 | -100% |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 19 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Jan 19 | $50 | +$59 | +119% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 19? | Jan 19 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Fed rate cut by September 18? | Aug 11 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Aug 11 | $64 | −$64 | -100% |
| Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Jul 18 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Jul 04 | $64 | −$64 | -100% |