Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:07:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff2a…396d other 36 markets active 3h ago coverage 722d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,990 (-58%) realized −$1,993 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$375now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$69
14 days−$128
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$136
finance 30% −$1,043
world 16% −$552
politics 8% −$156
crypto 4% −$80
sports 1% −$50
economics 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +16.0% +4.9% 50% 50% +6.0%
≤30d 20 -15.3% -23.4% 40% 40% -19.4%
≤90d 20 -15.3% -23.4% 40% 40% -19.4%
all 29 -34.0% -40.3% 31% 31% -70.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.3% 31% -70.8%
10% -46.0% 31% -73.6%
15% -51.2% 31% -76.2%
20% -56.0% 24% -78.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$128 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

722d coverage
Net worth$375
Realized−$1,993
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)29 / 36
History coverage722d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $135 +$85 (+171%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $70 +$20 (+40%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 69¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+29%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $35 −$15 (-31%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 20¢ $72 $21 −$51 (-71%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $5 −$45 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 +$167 +327%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$23 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$51 -50%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 14 $1,043 −$1,043 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 26 $502 −$502 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 19 $50 +$59 +119%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 19? Jan 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Fed rate cut by September 18? Aug 11 $20 −$20 -100%
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 11 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 04 $64 −$64 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 33h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 33h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 33h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 24¢ $48 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 10d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 10d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 11d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 12d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 12d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 14d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 14d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 14d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 14d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 14d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,043 103d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $502 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $375.13 · official $375.14 (match) · 63 history records