Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff2a…12aa world 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$5
other 12% +$1
politics 12% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.0% -7.7% 43% 0% -7.0%
≤30d 10 +1.3% -8.4% 30% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 10 +1.3% -8.4% 30% 0% -8.2%
all 24 -3.9% -13.0% 46% 0% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -8.1%
10% -21.4% 0% -16.9%
15% -29.0% 0% -25.0%
20% -35.9% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×6.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.26 per $1 lost it wins $9.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage455d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $38 +$4 +10%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $52 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $74 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 29 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 25 $1 $0 -21%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $1 $0 -4%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Mar 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration? Mar 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $12 +$1 +5%
Ethereum above $1,900 on March 21? Mar 22 $12 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $41 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $42 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $32 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $6 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 31h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $39 42h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $39 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $30 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $4 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $7 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $11 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $6 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $35 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $41 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $29 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $6 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $27 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.28 · official $41.28 (match) · 72 history records