trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +2.0% | -7.7% | 43% | 0% | -7.0% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +1.3% | -8.4% | 30% | 0% | -8.2% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +1.3% | -8.4% | 30% | 0% | -8.2% |
| all | 24 | -3.9% | -13.0% | 46% | 0% | -8.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.0% | 0% | -8.1% |
| 10% | -21.4% | 0% | -16.9% |
| 15% | -29.0% | 0% | -25.0% |
| 20% | -35.9% | 0% | -32.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $41 | $41 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 19 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 19 | $38 | +$4 | +10% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 18 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Jun 18 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 16 | $30 | +$1 | +3% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 15 | $52 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 10 | $74 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 10 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $31 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jun 26 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20? | Jun 21 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 17 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? | Mar 29 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 25 | $1 | $0 | -21% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 25 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? | Mar 24 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration? | Mar 24 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? | Mar 24 | $12 | +$1 | +5% |
| Ethereum above $1,900 on March 21? | Mar 22 | $12 | +$1 | +5% |