Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:04:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FF 0xff29…f008 crypto 1309 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$827 (+5%) realized +$799 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate70%889W / 385L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day42.4pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$512now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$3
14 days+$25
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$363
sports 26% +$78
weather 19% +$116
other 6% −$11
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +33.2% +20.5% 41% 36% -13.9%
≤30d 311 +11.4% +0.8% 55% 31% -12.0%
≤90d 1274 +1.3% -8.4% 70% 29% -11.1%
all 1274 +1.3% -8.4% 70% 29% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 29% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 25% -19.6%
15% -25.1% 22% -27.4%
20% -32.5% 18% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$512
Realized+$799
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses889 / 385
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions35
Markets (closed)1274 / 1309
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day42.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 1274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 84¢ 85¢ $84 $85 +$1 (+1%)
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner Noir Esports 2¢ 46¢ $3 $66 +$63 (+2175%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 12¢ 12¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 38¢ $43 $33 −$9 (-22%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? No 87¢ 86¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 80¢ 80¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? No 69¢ 74¢ $17 $19 +$1 (+8%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 74¢ 72¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? No 75¢ 72¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 64¢ 66¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 56¢ 56¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 52¢ 54¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 51¢ 46¢ $13 $11 −$1 (-11%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Over 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? No 93¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 81¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? No 92¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 91¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 84¢ 84¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-28%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? No 57¢ 38¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-32%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 72¢ 62¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 2¢ 1¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 2¢ 1¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Curaçao to win the second half? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 15 $16 −$6 -35%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$6 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka - Who wi Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $22 +$3 +15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 Jun 13 $0 +$5 +2713%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +86%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
MLP Austin: New Jersey 5s vs Florida Smash Jun 13 $10 +$5 +46%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $0 $0 -76%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$6 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 1h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 0¢ $0 1h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 0¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2¢ $10 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2¢ $10 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $512.26 · official $510.51 (match) · 3500 history records