Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:47:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FF 0xff26…1628 crypto 1173 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$374 (-6%) realized −$360 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate54%626W / 535L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day58.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$627
14 days−$296
30 days−$510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$479
tech 3% +$1
politics 2% −$2
world 2% −$4
other 1% −$7
sports 0% −$4
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 248 -21.4% -28.9% 59% 55% -41.0%
≤30d 676 -14.9% -23.0% 61% 35% -19.5%
≤90d 1161 -14.1% -22.3% 54% 32% -16.5%
all 1161 -14.1% -22.3% 54% 32% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 32% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 20% -24.5%
15% -36.5% 14% -31.8%
20% -42.7% 12% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized−$360
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses626 / 535
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1161 / 1173
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day58.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? No 89¢ 86¢ $89 $86 −$2 (-3%)
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? No 80¢ 84¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 81¢ 70¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 82¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.59 · official $261.59 (match) · 3500 history records