Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:14:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xff26…a5dd sports 111 markets active 3h ago coverage 21d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,077 (-3%) realized +$206 · open −$1,283
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%50W / 60L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$599est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$3,719
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -10.2% -18.8% 46% 46% -26.5%
≤30d 110 -7.2% -16.0% 45% 45% -16.5%
≤90d 110 -7.2% -16.0% 45% 45% -16.5%
all 110 -7.2% -16.0% 45% 45% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 45% -16.5%
10% -24.1% 45% -24.5%
15% -31.4% 45% -31.8%
20% -38.1% 41% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$267 vs −$263 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$206
Unrealized−$1,283
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses50 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$599
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage21d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 35¢ 0¢ $1,285 $2 −$1,283 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $1,112 −$1,097 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $842 +$271 +32%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $487 +$355 +73%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $665 −$653 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $711 +$441 +62%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $411 +$300 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $991 −$979 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,141 −$511 -45%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $1,036 −$1,020 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $544 −$537 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $629 −$240 -38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $376 −$370 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $504 −$498 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $193 −$190 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $502 +$348 +69%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $193 −$190 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $255 +$413 +162%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $243 −$240 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $245 +$441 +180%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $275 +$282 +103%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $254 +$104 +41%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $227 +$251 +111%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $498 −$490 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $446 −$440 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $491 +$402 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $364 +$685 +188%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $495 +$361 +73%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $263 −$258 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $402 −$396 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $198 +$204 +103%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $398 −$393 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $365 +$289 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $396 +$368 +93%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $188 −$184 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $303 +$160 +53%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $305 +$376 +123%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $227 −$222 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $229 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $187 −$183 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 13 $180 −$178 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $183 +$298 +162%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $402 +$287 +71%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $183 −$180 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $199 +$218 +109%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $355 +$211 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $1,304 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $1,112 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag SELL Anastasia Zakharova 100¢ $1,114 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag BUY Anastasia Zakharova 75¢ $842 5h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 88¢ $842 5h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 50¢ $487 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $665 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 89¢ $1,152 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 54¢ $711 7h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $712 7h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 57¢ $411 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 61¢ $991 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 48¢ $519 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 72¢ $1,509 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 29¢ $622 28h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 49¢ $1,036 32h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 54¢ $544 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 35¢ $245 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 80¢ $789 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 38¢ $384 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $376 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 57¢ $504 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $193 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 22¢ $154 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 83¢ $851 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $502 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $193 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $668 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.84 · official $1.84 (match) · 181 history records