Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff25…593b other 25 markets active 3d ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%2W / 23L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$506per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$6
other 37% −$3
world 12% −$1
economics 11% −$2
sports 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 25 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,417) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage81d
Avg bet$506
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $77 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $1,480 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 12 $1,392 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,417 −$3 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $1,455 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,431 −$2 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 10 $1,433 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,449 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $1,438 −$2 -0%
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? Apr 20 $7 $0 -6%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $7 $0 -4%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $216 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 05 $157 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 05 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 04 $28 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $119 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Mar 30 $73 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Mar 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Mar 25 $127 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $31 2d
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $15 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $16 2d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 2d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 5d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $37 5d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 5d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 5d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 5d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $151 5d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 99¢ $8 5d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $1,073 5d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 99¢ $28 5d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $318 5d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $1,392 5d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 5d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $1,414 5d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $1,363 6d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $11 6d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $195 6d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $25 6d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records