Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff25…421f world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$440 (-2%) realized −$525 · open +$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$612per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,067now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days+$279
14 days+$435
30 days+$629
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$259
finance 31% −$225
economics 6% −$48
tech 2% +$25
sports 1% −$189
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.3% -4.7% 50% 50% +0.2%
≤30d 5 +12.2% +1.5% 80% 60% +0.9%
≤90d 18 -8.0% -16.8% 61% 44% -10.5%
all 35 -3.8% -13.0% 54% 31% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 31% -10.7%
10% -21.3% 17% -19.2%
15% -28.9% 6% -27.0%
20% -35.9% 6% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$807) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$160 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$2,067
Realized−$525
Unrealized+$85
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)35 / 39
History coverage116d
Avg bet$612
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $644 $648 +$4 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $517 $542 +$25 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 95¢ $520 $528 +$8 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 78¢ 90¢ $300 $348 +$48 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 25 $727 −$53 -7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 21 $1,856 +$331 +18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $592 +$136 +23%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 15 $1,516 +$21 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $750 +$194 +26%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $190 −$189 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 25 $1,703 −$512 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 18 $1,000 −$636 -64%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 17 $400 −$346 -86%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $1,650 +$25 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 02 $750 +$98 +13%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 02 $800 +$281 +35%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 15 $400 −$79 -20%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $900 +$182 +20%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 03 $850 +$108 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Apr 03 $807 +$248 +31%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $1,355 +$87 +6%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 30 $300 −$76 -25%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Mar 25 $607 −$6 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 25 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 17 $650 +$57 +9%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 11 $450 −$26 -6%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Mar 10 $23 +$2 +7%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Mar 09 $350 −$58 -17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 09 $318 −$231 -73%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 09 $50 −$6 -12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 09 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Mar 07 $338 +$282 +83%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 06 $164 +$175 +107%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 06 $100 −$48 -48%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $198 −$10 -5%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 03 $400 −$275 -69%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 03 $309 +$31 +10%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 02 $150 +$4 +3%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 02 $150 +$9 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 23¢ $669 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 75¢ $675 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $520 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $519 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $727 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $592 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $592 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $518 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $518 22d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 75¢ $40 30d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $41 30d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 85¢ $149 37d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $500 37d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $500 37d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $184 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $179 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $54 38d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 37¢ $65 48d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 75¢ $500 65d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $400 65d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,000 65d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $799 65d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $492 69d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 32¢ $192 69d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $3 69d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $1 69d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $1 69d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $0 69d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 70d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $19 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,066.59 · official $2,066.59 (match) · 227 history records