Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff22…83b9 crypto 35 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (136 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$27 (-6%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day135.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (136 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -48.1% -53.1% 40% 20% -30.5%
≤30d 35 -21.6% -29.1% 40% 26% -22.3%
≤90d 35 -21.6% -29.1% 40% 26% -22.3%
all 35 -21.6% -29.1% 40% 26% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.1% 26% -22.3%
10% ← realistic here -35.8% 20% -29.7%
15% -42.0% 11% -36.5%
20% -47.7% 11% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day135.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$6 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $22 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $13 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$11 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $27 −$9 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $16 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$10 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 55¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 44¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 41¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 100¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 62¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? SELL Down 38¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 48¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 52¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 48¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 50¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 179 history records