Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff20…cf47 crypto 881 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$682 (-13%) realized −$681 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate53%458W / 410L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$7
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$162
other 9% −$42
sports 4% −$1
politics 0% −$12
tech 0% +$3
world 0% −$3
weather 0% −$5
finance 0% −$2
economics 0% +$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -27.6% -34.5% 42% 21% -23.8%
≤30d 114 -0.4% -9.9% 57% 39% -12.7%
≤90d 868 -1.9% -11.2% 53% 38% -13.4%
all 868 -1.9% -11.2% 53% 38% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 38% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 27% -21.7%
15% -27.5% 19% -29.3%
20% -34.6% 12% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$681
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses458 / 410
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)868 / 881
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 868 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-15%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -6%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $1 $0 -16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -10%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $3 $0 -14%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +22%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $3 $0 -12%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +34%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Oman vs Saudi Arabia Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +119%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bahrain vs Myanmar Jun 03 $1 $0 +23%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $1 $0 +38%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -83%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $1 $0 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $1 $0 +26%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -77%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 29 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +29%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 28 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 27 $5 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 2h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 52¢ $1 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 26h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 26h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.58 · official $36.58 (match) · 3500 history records