Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff1d…1f59 crypto 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$176 (+2%) realized +$244 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate84%26W / 5L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day53.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$432now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$611
other 11% +$155
sports 11% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -1.7% -11.0% 84% 16% -13.1%
≤30d 31 -1.7% -11.0% 84% 16% -13.1%
≤90d 31 -1.7% -11.0% 84% 16% -13.1%
all 31 -1.7% -11.0% 84% 16% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 16% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 6% -21.4%
15% -27.3% 3% -29.0%
20% -34.5% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$507) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$177 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$432
Realized+$244
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses26 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 92¢ 80¢ $500 $432 −$68 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $478 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $471 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Sout Jun 17 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $804 −$804 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $701 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $744 +$51 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $703 +$42 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $603 +$46 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $602 +$22 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $502 +$30 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $502 +$30 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $302 +$24 +8%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $550 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $507 +$133 +26%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $201 +$32 +16%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $170 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $340 +$33 +10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $89 −$50 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $503 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $478 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $471 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 26m
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Sout SELL Ivory 100¢ $109 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $804 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $701 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $744 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $703 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $603 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $602 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $502 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $502 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $302 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $556 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $432.07 · official $396.74 · 90 history records