Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff1d…fa38 world 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%31W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$9
politics 24% +$2
other 18% −$2
sports 7% +$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% +$3
finance 2% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +8.0% -2.2% 33% 11% -8.8%
≤30d 28 +2.3% -7.5% 29% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 70 +0.9% -8.7% 31% 1% -9.6%
all 92 +0.9% -8.8% 34% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 2% -9.5%
10% -17.5% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses31 / 61
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage271d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $66 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $21 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $7 $0 +6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $22 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $59 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $97 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $81 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $71 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $94 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $497 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $94 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $95 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $126 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $93 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $108 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $72 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $165 −$14 -9%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $94 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $185 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $89 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $93 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $109 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $99 +$5 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $193 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $4 $0 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $540 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $4 $0 -8%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $99 +$2 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 14 $6 $0 -3%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $99 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $110 $0 +0%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $13 $0 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $18 +$1 +3%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $107 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $109 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $307 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $91 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $153 +$1 +1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 07 $393 +$1 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $66 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $66 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $16 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $8 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $6 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $5 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $59 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $59 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $22 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $76 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $97 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $81 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $81 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $9 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $13 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $6 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 430 history records