Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:32:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xff1a…44e8 crypto 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 748d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$62 (+15%) realized +$70 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$51
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$10
sports 27% +$52
crypto 10% −$17
politics 8% +$6
tech 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +10.4% -0.1% 56% 50% +6.3%
≤30d 16 +10.4% -0.1% 56% 50% +6.3%
≤90d 16 +10.4% -0.1% 56% 50% +6.3%
all 21 +9.3% -1.1% 62% 48% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 48% +6.0%
10% -10.6% 33% -4.1%
15% -19.2% 29% -13.4%
20% -27.1% 24% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

748d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$70
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage748d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $68 $60 −$8 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $150 +$18 +12%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $100 +$50 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$3 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$5 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +17%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 08 $14 +$14 +100%
Copa America: Argentina vs. Canada Aug 28 $12 +$2 +19%
NVIDIA largest company before June 15? Jun 16 $11 +$1 +9%
Indian Election: Will BJP win a majority of seats? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Indian Election: Modi reelected? Jun 13 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $69 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $150 5h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 66¢ $100 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $13 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 35h
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 50¢ $14 662d
Copa America: Argentina vs. Canada BUY Argentina 84¢ $12 713d
NVIDIA largest company before June 15? BUY No 92¢ $11 738d
Indian Election: Will BJP win a majority of seats? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 747d
Indian Election: Will BJP win a majority of seats? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 747d
Indian Election: Modi reelected? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 747d
Indian Election: Will BJP win a majority of seats? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 747d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.74 · official $61.69 · 42 history records