Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:47:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FF 0xff1a…5d2c other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,258 (-1%) realized −$1,258 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%25W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$723per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$979now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$9
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$43
other 38% −$51
sports 15% −$153
culture 3% −$3
world 1% −$1,018
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 91 -14.0% -22.2% 10% 3% -11.8%
all 126 -2.3% -11.6% 20% 10% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 10% -10.8%
10% -20.1% 10% -19.3%
15% -27.8% 10% -27.1%
20% -34.9% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,018) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$20 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$979
Realized−$1,258
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses25 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)126 / 128
History coverage127d
Avg bet$723
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $550 $550 −$0 (-0%)
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $430 $429 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $429 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $236 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,556 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $611 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,286 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $615 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 03 $368 $0 +0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $702 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $521 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,088 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $529 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $997 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $998 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 07 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,025 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $992 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 01 $242 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 01 $260 +$1 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $1,163 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $2,119 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? Apr 21 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $248 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,926 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $938 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,095 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $967 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,489 −$3 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1,700 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $430 35m
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $428 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $429 4h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $550 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $742 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $743 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $444 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $445 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $737 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $738 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $747 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $748 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $649 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $650 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $648 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $649 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $649 12d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $650 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $709 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $710 12d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $610 14d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $611 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $658 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $659 15d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $615 15d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $615 15d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $553 15d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $554 15d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $345 19d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $346 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $979.43 · official $979.43 (match) · 406 history records