Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:10:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xff1a…6923
other · 34 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$13 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$21 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage73d
Avg bet$448
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 0 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $877 −$2 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $1,199 −$2 -0%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,160 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $69 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $1,249 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 11 $1,204 −$2 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 10 $1,224 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 10 $68 $0 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $1,224 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,197 −$2 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $72 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? May 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $860 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 16 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 14 $806 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $770 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Max Greyserman win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 02 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the 2026 South Korean local Apr 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 44% −$11
other 19% −$3
culture 14% −$4
economics 9% −$2
tech 8% −$1
sports 6% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 1h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 2h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 2h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $19 2h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,197 2d
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,177 2d
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 2d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $917 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $240 2d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $1,160 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 3d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $11 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 3d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,247 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 3d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,228 3d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $11 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $931 3d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $271 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $1,204 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 34 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 34 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records