Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

FF 0xff19…3ebe crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$33 (+8%) realized +$33 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR65%break-even

Win rate65%13W / 7L

Drawdown63%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day48.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +65%

net ROI/market (all)+6.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+18.0%	+6.8%	65%	65%	-0.0%
≤30d	20	+18.0%	+6.8%	65%	65%	-0.0%
≤90d	20	+18.0%	+6.8%	65%	65%	-0.0%
all	20	+18.0%	+6.8%	65%	65%	-0.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover48.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+6.8%	65%	-0.0%
10% ← realistic here	-3.5%	65%	-9.6%
15%	-12.8%	65%	-18.3%
20%	-21.3%	65%	-26.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +22% → late +14% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.36 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$21

Realized+$33

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses13 / 7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day48.0

Drawdown63%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	57¢	57¢	$21	$21	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 21	$21	−$16	-75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Jun 21	$21	+$14	+69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Jun 21	$23	−$13	-59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Jun 21	$21	−$14	-68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 21	$21	+$14	+64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Jun 21	$21	−$16	-74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Jun 21	$21	+$14	+69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 21	$28	+$22	+80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 21	$21	+$13	+60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Jun 21	$6	+$4	+72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 21	$19	−$15	-75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 21	$21	+$13	+64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Jun 21	$21	+$14	+66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Jun 21	$21	+$13	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 21	$41	−$31	-76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 21	$21	−$15	-74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Jun 20	$21	+$14	+69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Jun 20	$21	+$13	+60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 20	$21	+$14	+69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 20	$2	+$1	+59%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$21	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	SELL Down	15¢	$5	25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$21	27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	SELL Up	93¢	$35	27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$21	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	SELL Up	26¢	$0	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	SELL Up	26¢	$1	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	SELL Up	26¢	$1	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	SELL Up	26¢	$1	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	SELL Up	26¢	$5	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$23	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	SELL Up	18¢	$7	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$21	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	SELL Up	98¢	$35	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	SELL Down	16¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	SELL Up	96¢	$35	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	SELL Up	88¢	$34	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$19	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$34	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	SELL Up	96¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	SELL Down	15¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$19	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	SELL Up	98¢	$34	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$21	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.70 · official $17.82 · 49 history records