Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:50:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff18…d073 other 283 markets active 2h ago coverage 403d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$42 (+0%) realized −$108 · open +$150
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%139W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$566now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$38
14 days+$38
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$348
other 27% +$580
crypto 16% −$99
sports 6% −$22
politics 5% −$53
tech 3% −$44
weather 0% −$9
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +25.1% +13.2% 61% 61% +8.9%
≤30d 47 +15.8% +4.8% 57% 55% +3.4%
≤90d 104 +12.1% +1.4% 51% 49% -18.9%
all 268 -0.4% -9.9% 52% 41% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 41% -10.9%
10% -18.5% 30% -19.4%
15% -26.4% 22% -27.2%
20% -33.6% 19% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

403d coverage
Net worth$566
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$150
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses139 / 129
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions15
Markets (closed)268 / 283
History coverage403d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 36¢ 49¢ $203 $276 +$73 (+36%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 39¢ 92¢ $50 $119 +$69 (+136%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 52¢ 56¢ $52 $56 +$4 (+9%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 51¢ 56¢ $15 $17 +$1 (+9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $12 +$1 (+7%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 58¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 78¢ 78¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 58¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 33¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$7 +124%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +104%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 +$3 +44%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $6 +$9 +133%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$5 +223%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $20 +$10 +47%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $7 +$8 +117%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +113%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $8 +$2 +33%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$5 +113%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +113%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $36 −$3 -7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6 +$4 +79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $9 $0 -1%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 01 $65 +$9 +14%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $14 +$19 +138%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $27 +$3 +11%
Will Hamarkameratene win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $8 −$4 -47%
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $10 −$3 -33%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs Total Games O/U 5.5 May 25 $31 +$18 +58%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 25 $18 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $13 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 19 $1 +$3 +240%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $8 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 18 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 18 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 18 $10 +$3 +30%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 18 $44 +$4 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $21 +$14 +66%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 16 $20 +$3 +15%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? May 16 $52 +$17 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $12 +$2 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $14 +$10 +71%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $9 +$8 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 78¢ $8 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $3 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $9 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 2h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $0 2h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 15¢ $15 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $1 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $3 11h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $6 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $3 14h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire $0 16h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire $1 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $10 21h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $3 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 31¢ $2 21h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 60¢ $1 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 60¢ $5 22h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $7 22h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $0 22h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 22h
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 31h
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 31h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $5 41h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $2 41h
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 42h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $2 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $565.59 · official $565.61 (match) · 1288 history records