Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:28:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FF 0xff15…5941 other 14 markets active 21h ago coverage 86d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$19 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$4
world 23% −$15
politics 17% $0
tech 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 0% -5.5%
≤30d 2 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.8%
≤90d 4 +50.5% +36.2% 75% 25% -4.3%
all 4 +50.5% +36.2% 75% 25% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.2% 25% -4.3%
10% +23.1% 25% -13.5%
15% +11.2% 25% -21.8%
20% +0.3% 25% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)4 / 14
History coverage86d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No 50¢ 86¢ $20 $35 +$15 (+73%)
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 63¢ 78¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 88¢ 89¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 50¢ 14¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-73%)
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-26%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? No 12¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 37¢ 22¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-59%)
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Yes 31¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? Jun 13 $12 +$1 +4%
China coup attempt before 2027? Jun 11 $7 $0 +3%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Apr 02 $50 $0 +0%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? Mar 26 $2 +$3 +194%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.74 · official $83.71 (match) · 25 history records