Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:16:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff0e…891d other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%10W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$3
world 32% +$2
politics 15% $0
crypto 9% −$8
sports 4% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 44% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 44% 0% -8.7%
all 28 -6.1% -15.0% 36% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 0% -10.7%
10% -23.1% 0% -19.2%
15% -30.6% 0% -27.0%
20% -37.4% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses10 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage485d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Yoon in jail before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +5%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $27 −$1 -5%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13? Jun 13 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will José Carlos Sánchez Verazaín win the 2025 Bolivia presidential el Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2025 French Open? May 31 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on May 30? May 30 $28 $0 +1%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 28 $28 $0 +0%
Google forced to sell Chrome? May 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2025 French Open? May 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bybit buy >$1b ETH by next Friday? May 28 $39 −$8 -20%
Will "Bridgerton" win Best Cast in a Drama Series at the 2025 SAG Awar Mar 04 $38 $0 +1%
Will The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $35 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $35 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $36 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $35 10h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $21 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $9 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $22 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $2 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $30 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $2 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $34 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 13d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 13d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 13d
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $25 357d
Yoon in jail before July? BUY No 95¢ $2 361d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.75 · official $31.75 (match) · 80 history records