Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FF 0xff0c…81a1 weather 734 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,151 (+1%) realized +$2,148 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%730W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day73.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$436now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$407
7 days−$200
14 days+$72
30 days+$418
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 -0.8% -10.2% 99% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 611 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 733 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 733 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 0% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$151 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.71 per $1 lost it wins $2.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$436
Realized+$2,148
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses730 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)733 / 734
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$246
Trades / day73.6
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 733 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $308 $311 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on May Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on May 3? Jun 18 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 4? Jun 18 $197 −$197 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 20? Jun 18 $256 −$256 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $761 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $608 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $304 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $330 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $147 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $314 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $304 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on June Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $126 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $543 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $398 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $219 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $332 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $304 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $606 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $607 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $758 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $606 +$15 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $303 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $303 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $303 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $214 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C or higher on June Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $303 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $303 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $125 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 15? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $241 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $605 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $302 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $302 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $202 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $271 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 7m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 10m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $38 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $22 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $210 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $18 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 10h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $74 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $304 10h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $299 11h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $85 11h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 11h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 11h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 12h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 12h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $380 12h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $380 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $304 16h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $57 16h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $147 19h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 20h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $76 21h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $290 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.94 · official $433.32 (match) · 3500 history records