Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:37:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FF 0xff0b…7b8f crypto 1201 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$36 (+0%) realized +$38 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate92%1099W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$9
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 49% +$34
crypto 46% −$19
other 2% +$10
sports 1% +$7
politics 1% −$4
world 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -0.7% -10.2% 94% 8% -9.4%
≤30d 239 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 3% -8.8%
≤90d 714 -3.6% -12.8% 88% 5% -10.5%
all 1191 -0.9% -10.4% 92% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 6% -9.2%
10% -18.9% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.8% 2% -25.8%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1099 / 92
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1191 / 1201
History coverage137d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by less than 10%? No 100¢ 96¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or below on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? No 96¢ 97¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? No 74¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 29? Jun 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 29? Jun 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 29? Jun 29 $27 $0 +0%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 29 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 28? Jun 29 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C or below on June 28? Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 28? Jun 28 $3 $0 +1%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 27? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 27? Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 27? Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $15 $0 +0%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 27 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? Jun 26 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 25? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 25? Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 25? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 24? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 24? Jun 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$7 +32%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 23? Jun 23 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 23? Jun 23 $11 $0 +1%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $16 $0 +1%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $10 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $16 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or below on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $6 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $10 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 96¢ $4 8h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 99¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $10 13h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $12 19h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 100¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $10 31h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $10 31h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $10 32h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $3 37h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $10 38h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $10 40h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $15 41h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $3 41h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $10 41h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $3 42h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $5 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.25 · official $109.19 (match) · 2867 history records