Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:41:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FF 0xff09…3e23 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$27 (+6%) realized +$24 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$69
other 18% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +45.6% +31.8% 33% 33% -3.7%
≤30d 9 +45.6% +31.8% 33% 33% -3.7%
≤90d 9 +45.6% +31.8% 33% 33% -3.7%
all 9 +45.6% +31.8% 33% 33% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.8% 33% -3.7%
10% +19.2% 33% -12.9%
15% +7.6% 33% -21.4%
20% -2.9% 33% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$32 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 46¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 40¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$77 +152%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$35 +549%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$102 +199%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$42 -82%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $61 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $61 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 13¢ $8 10h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $41 11h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 11h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 11h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 11h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 12h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $153 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 32h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 29¢ $28 36h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 36h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 42h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.81 · official $122.81 (match) · 16 history records