Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:05:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xff06…cc7b
other · 58 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$104 -45%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$105 · open −$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$105
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses14 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)53 / 58
History coverage288d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%
Chart Positions 5 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-04? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Bournemouth vs. Brighton end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Brentford vs. Newcastle end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-27? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Olympiakos Piraeus win on 2025-09-17? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-09? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-09? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-05? Yes 73¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-13? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Phillies vs. Dodgers Dodgers 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-30? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-08? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Crystal Palace vs. Brighton end in a draw? Nov 14 $1 +$3 +257%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brentford vs. Newcastle end in a draw? Nov 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Leeds United end in a draw? Nov 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? Nov 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will West Ham win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $3 +$3 +110%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-11-05? Nov 08 $1 $0 +45%
Will Tottenham vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Nov 08 $1 +$3 +257%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 05 $1 +$2 +144%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-10-05? Oct 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-04? Oct 04 $1 +$1 +58%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-04? Oct 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-30? Sep 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea vs. Brighton end in a draw? Sep 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Olympiakos Piraeus win on 2025-09-17? Sep 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Phillies vs. Dodgers Sep 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16? Sep 17 $12 +$10 +79%
Phillies vs. Dodgers Sep 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-14? Sep 15 $14 +$5 +33%
Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? Sep 14 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-09-13? Sep 14 $2 +$3 +144%
Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Sep 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will West Ham vs. Tottenham end in a draw? Sep 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-13? Sep 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bournemouth vs. Brighton end in a draw? Sep 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-13? Sep 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win on 2025-09-09? Sep 10 $9 +$8 +89%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-31? Sep 09 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-30? Sep 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-30? Sep 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix? Sep 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 87% −$110
sports 10% −$11
crypto 3% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 40m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 40h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 46h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 46h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2d
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 204d
Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 212d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-09? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 216d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-09? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 216d
Will Brentford vs. Newcastle end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 216d
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Leeds United end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 216d
Will Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 217d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-09? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 217d
Will Crystal Palace vs. Brighton end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 217d
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-09? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 217d
Will Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 217d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 217d
Will West Ham win on 2025-11-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 217d
Will West Ham win on 2025-11-08? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 217d
Will Tottenham vs. Manchester United end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 217d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-43.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +28.7% +16.4% 43% 43% +6.1%
≤30d 7 +28.7% +16.4% 43% 43% +6.1%
≤90d 7 +28.7% +16.4% 43% 43% +6.1%
all 53 -37.5% -43.5% 26% 26% -56.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.5% 26% -56.3%
10% -48.9% 26% -60.5%
15% -53.8% 25% -64.3%
20% -58.3% 23% -67.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.10 · official $4.10 (match) · 86 history records