Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:38:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xff04…d971
other · 253 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$892 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$769 · open −$123
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$700
Realized−$769
Unrealized−$123
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses53 / 184
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions16
Markets (closed)237 / 253
History coverage68d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%
Chart Positions 16 History 237 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,190
7 days−$3,273
14 days−$3,484
30 days−$3,473
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Yes 18¢ 100¢ $40 $222 +$182 (+456%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $77 $85 +$8 (+10%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $80 $74 −$6 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $60 $49 −$11 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-14%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 29? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+61%)
Australia leading at halftime? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Bernie say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" in Maine? Yes 13¢ 100¢ $2 $15 +$13 (+650%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $40 $11 −$29 (-73%)
Will Bernie say "Revolution" or "Revolutionary" in Maine? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+300%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $6 −$34 (-85%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Paraguay? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? No 19¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? No 8¢ 0¢ $207 $0 −$207 (-100%)
Will Alexis Tipton as Reze (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc) win Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (English) at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will "MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 2? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "Comrade" this week? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hamoud Abu Hassoun as Loid Forger (Childhood) (SPY x FAMILY Seaso Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Team to Take First Corner Jun 13 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $202 +$120 +59%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$50 +122%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$58 +141%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $41 +$182 +445%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $333 −$333 -100%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 the Memorial Tourna Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? Jun 12 $20 +$31 +150%
Will Raafat Bazo as Yuri Briar (SPY x FAMILY Season 3) win Best Anime Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 5? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bernie say "Stakeholder" in Maine? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Chris Gotterup finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 the Memorial Tour Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "Apocalypse Hotel" win Best Original Anime at the 2026 Crunchyrol Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Fluent FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 12 $14 −$13 -90%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 26? Jun 12 $20 +$28 +138%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 1? Jun 12 $40 +$10 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $21 +$30 +146%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $40 +$17 +42%
Will Alex Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 the Memorial To Jun 12 $40 +$26 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 12 $31 +$37 +121%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 57% +$1,481
crypto 13% −$1,107
finance 11% −$124
tech 8% −$643
culture 5% −$438
sports 3% +$176
world 3% −$356
politics 0% +$160
economics 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $41 47m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $41 47m
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 49m
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 49m
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 49m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 2h
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 2h
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $322 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Team to Take First Corner BUY Switzerland 74¢ $101 5h
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 5h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 14h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 15h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 23h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 23h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 23h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 23h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 23h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 25h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 25h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 25h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 25h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 26h
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 26h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 26h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 28h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -54.9% -59.2% 20% 18% -67.5%
≤30d 179 -22.3% -29.7% 23% 22% -44.9%
≤90d 237 -3.8% -13.0% 22% 21% -33.0%
all 237 -3.8% -13.0% 22% 21% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 21% -33.0%
10% -21.3% 21% -39.4%
15% -28.9% 17% -45.3%
20% -35.9% 15% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $699.70 · official $699.70 (match) · 648 history records