Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff04…9ba3 crypto 70 markets active 6d ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$91 (-6%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate90%63W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$111
14 days−$102
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$19
politics 17% −$89
other 6% −$5
sports 5% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +0.5% -9.1% 85% 23% -20.5%
≤30d 70 -0.9% -10.4% 90% 13% -16.3%
≤90d 70 -0.9% -10.4% 90% 13% -16.3%
all 70 -0.9% -10.4% 90% 13% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 13% -16.3%
10% -18.9% 4% -24.3%
15% -26.8% 1% -31.6%
20% -33.9% 1% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$23 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses63 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage12d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$1 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $27 −$2 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $22 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $22 $0 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $248 −$89 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $48 −$13 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $24 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $24 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 09 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 09 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 08 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 08 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 08 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 08 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 08 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $43 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $43 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $43 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $41 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $41 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $25 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $26 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $27 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $22 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 2¢ $22 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 2¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $13 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $13 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 85¢ $11 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 43¢ $12 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 95¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 94¢ $11 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 94¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 94¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $24 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 186 history records