Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:36:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FF 0xff03…c30e other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$77 (-8%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$105
14 days−$88
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$105
sports 2% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -10.4% -18.9% 71% 29% -19.6%
≤30d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 75% 38% -17.8%
≤90d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 75% 38% -17.8%
all 8 -1.1% -10.5% 75% 38% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 38% -17.8%
10% -19.1% 25% -25.7%
15% -26.9% 25% -32.9%
20% -34.1% 12% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$91 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage7d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $111 −$111 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $182 −$70 -39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $180 +$1 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $129 +$10 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $117 +$53 +45%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $116 +$1 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$16 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $31 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $111 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 53¢ $111 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $182 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 99¢ $180 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $129 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $117 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $58 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $58 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $25 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.69 · official $60.69 (match) · 19 history records