Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfefd…cbc2 crypto 246 markets active 4d ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$245 (-4%) realized −$245 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate65%161W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$96
14 days−$96
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$176
sports 42% −$236
politics 2% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -8.2% -17.0% 64% 52% -16.8%
≤30d 134 -5.2% -14.3% 68% 55% -14.8%
≤90d 204 -6.3% -15.2% 67% 55% -15.3%
all 246 -6.0% -14.9% 65% 54% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 54% -15.6%
10% -23.1% 39% -23.7%
15% -30.5% 22% -31.0%
20% -37.3% 11% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$245
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses161 / 85
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)246 / 246
History coverage108d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 246 Trades
no open positions (50 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $46 −$39 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $28 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $33 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 664 history records