Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfefc…5bf7 crypto 90 markets active 4d ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$23 (-10%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%49W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day105.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$42
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -15.5% -23.5% 54% 38% -26.5%
≤30d 90 -15.1% -23.2% 54% 39% -26.3%
≤90d 90 -15.1% -23.2% 54% 39% -26.3%
all 90 -15.1% -23.2% 54% 39% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 39% -26.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 18% -33.4%
15% -37.3% 6% -39.8%
20% -43.4% 3% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses49 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day105.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$4 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 320 history records