Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:36:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FE 0xfef8…3bd8 other 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate14%13W / 81L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$5
politics 21% −$6
sports 3% −$2
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.0% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 94 +2.8% -7.0% 14% 10% -9.6%
all 94 +2.8% -7.0% 14% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 10% -9.6%
10% -15.9% 10% -18.2%
15% -24.0% 10% -26.1%
20% -31.5% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses13 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)94 / 97
History coverage89d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $158 $158 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 05 $61 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 05 $110 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $302 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 27 $99 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $257 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $278 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 14 $252 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $255 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $279 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $276 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $838 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $254 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $21 $0 +2%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $774 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $283 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $275 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $540 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $259 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $510 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $260 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $284 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $268 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $282 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $282 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $260 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $282 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $829 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $283 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 11 $266 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $274 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 10 $491 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 10 $285 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $745 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 09 $284 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 09 $272 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $51 57m
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $158 2d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 11d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 12d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 21d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 22d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $48 22d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $48 22d
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $61 22d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $51 23d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $51 24d
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $110 26d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $48 27d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $48 27d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 28d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 28d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 29d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 29d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $31 30d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $31 30d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $277 33d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $278 33d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $265 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.84 · official $267.84 (match) · 303 history records