Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FE 0xfef8…a75d other 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$8 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$30
14 days−$70
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$467
sports 23% +$387
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -20.6% -28.2% 33% 27% -6.6%
≤30d 36 -18.3% -26.1% 36% 31% -10.5%
≤90d 36 -18.3% -26.1% 36% 31% -10.5%
all 43 -19.5% -27.2% 35% 30% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 30% -10.6%
10% -34.1% 28% -19.2%
15% -40.5% 26% -27.0%
20% -46.3% 19% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$30 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage141d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $106 +$51 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$16 -74%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$15 -69%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $234 +$24 +10%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$11 -53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $105 −$3 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $105 +$61 +58%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $53 −$31 -58%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $105 +$64 +61%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 −$5 -38%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $115 −$51 -45%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $209 +$17 +8%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $32 −$11 -34%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32 −$17 -54%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $105 +$51 +49%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -60%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$105 +103%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$25 +80%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $147 −$140 -95%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 +$7 +64%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 −$13 -26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $62 −$50 -80%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $92 +$195 +212%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$101 +99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $347 −$172 -49%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $101 +$29 +29%
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5 Feb 07 $1 $0 -2%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 07 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on February 1? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Holstein Kiel vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 4.5 Feb 01 $1 $0 +22%
Spread: Jazz (-3.5) Jan 31 $1 +$1 +104%
Spread: Clippers (-2.5) Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Nets vs. Jazz: O/U 227.5 Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $106 12m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $157 12m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $106 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $107 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $210 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $234 20h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 21h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $102 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $105 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $105 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $22 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $53 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $105 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 44¢ $64 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $105 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $226 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $209 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.47 · official $91.47 (match) · 99 history records